新葡京官方

时 间：2025年9月24日16:00-17:30（周三）

地 点：中国人民大学中关村校区明德主楼729会议室

主讲人：霍震 耶鲁大学副教授

主持人：陈伟泽副教授

主 题：Micro shocks and Macro Fluctuations in the Information Network

讲座简介：

In this paper, we study how heterogeneity in firms’ attention allocation contributes to the amplification of micro-level shocks into aggregate economic fluctuations. Empirically, we document that the attention firms receive follows a fat-tailed distribution based on their browsing activities related to each other's electronic filings on EDGAR. This finding suggests that a relatively small subset of firms attracts a disproportionately large share of attention, consistent with the fact that the browsing-weighted measure of sales growth exhibits substantial predictive power for macroeconomic forecasts based on survey data. Theoretically, we extend the noisy business cycle framework to incorporate asymmetric attention at the firm level through a directed graph. We derive conditions under which granular effects emerge even when firms are homogeneous in size and analyze the interplay between attention allocation and firm-size heterogeneity in magnifying micro-level shocks. Quantitatively, our analysis reveals that attention heterogeneity alone can drive significant aggregate fluctuations resulting from micro shocks. Nevertheless, the degree to which attention asymmetry complements firm-size heterogeneity depends critically on the correlation between these two factors.

主讲人简介：

Zhen Huo is an Associate Professor in the Department of Economics at Yale University. He received his B.A. in Mathematics and Economics from Renmin University of China and his Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Minnesota. His research interests lie in macroeconomics and international macroeconomics, with a particular focus on informational frictions. His work has appeared in leading journals including the American Economic Review, Review of Economic Studies, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, Journal of International Economics, Journal of Monetary Economics, and Journal of Economic Theory, among others. He currently serves as a Co-Editor of the Journal of International Economics.