新葡京官方

2025年12月22日，由中国人民大学中国经济改革与发展研究院、新葡京官方 主办的中国经济改革与发展前沿系列讲座第二十二期，将在中国人民大学明德主楼734会议室开讲。

主讲人简介：胡雨霄，伦敦政治新葡京官方 博士，现担任上海交通大学安泰经济与管理新葡京官方 助理教授。她的研究领域为环境经济学与发展经济学，主要运用因果识别方法与一般均衡模型，量化评估环境政策的福利与分配效应，并深入探究自然灾害对经济社会的影响及其作用机制。她曾经获得中国留美经济学年会、华人资源与环境协会以及亚洲开发银行最佳论文奖。

摘要：Flood mitigation policies have been reshaping the distribution of flood damages. In China, the Flood Detention Basin (FDB) policy mitigates extreme floods by deliberately diverting excess floodwater into designated rural counties to protect downstream urban cities. Using detailed rural household-level data from 1995–2012, we study how residents in FDB counties adjust their decisions in response to this policy-induced flood risk. We first document that households in FDB areas become locked into agriculture: labor remains more concentrated in the agricultural sector, with limited shifts into non-agricultural activities, and household income declines relative to comparable non-FDB areas. We then show substantial adaptation in many aspects. First, farmers reoptimize their crop portfolios by shifting toward lower-risk, lower-input crops. Second, they diversify how their land is used, which leads to greater land fragmentation. Third, they increase their holdings of liquid financial assets and crop stocks to hedge against potential flood losses. Together, these findings highlight how deliberate flood-damage reallocation shapes the rural economies in a country with high flood risk.

讲座时间：12月22日 12:00-13:30

讲座地点：中国人民大学明德主楼734(线下)；中国人民大学通州校区经济学部楼610(线上)

主办单位：中国人民大学中国经济改革与发展研究院；新葡京官方

主题：功能定义未来:蓄洪区的适应性发展（Sliver of Hope: Agricultural Lock-In and Adaptation in China's Flood Detention Basins）